Thursday, April 9, 2026

On Trump, Iran, A "Ceasefire," And War

 

Trump supporters may not like this post. But I have always prided myself on telling the truth as I have been given to see it. Whereas I have generally supported President Trump I as regards the Iranian war, and in nearly all other matters in general, I am concerned he may have set himself up for disappointment, if not failure, with his recent actions…and words.

I have no doubt he is a master negotiator. He has proven that time and again over the years. But continually (VERY) publicly asserting/bragging that you are clobbering your enemy in a virtually unprecedented manner, particularly a deranged one like those who control Iran, is almost certain to make them even more determined to save face. Subsequently stating that you will end their civilization in a fiery hell if they don’t agree to your demands actually dramatically limits the choices you have to garner public support and get the enemy to comply with your desires. I don’t believe Trump ever truly planned to wipe Iran off the face of the earth and all of her people with it. Therefore, in so asserting, he narrowed his options down to two: following through on that vow and looking to people around the world like a monster or allowing his deranged detractors to say he “chickened out” again. He should never have provided them the opportunity to do so with any possible justification.

I don’t usually subscribe to conventional wisdom. In fact, I often loathe it. But there is no doubt that allowing your enemies to surrender with some sort of “dignity” is the surest way to get them to surrender. Even when they don’t deserve to have any dignity at all. Victory—winning—must be the main objective, especially when your nation hasn’t won a clearcut military victory in over 80 years.

None of us truly know what has happened behind the scenes. And there is no doubt the asshats rooting for Iran here in America haven’t helped things. I hope Trump didn’t himself take an “off ramp” due to anti-war pressure and sentiment here in the U.S.

But there is one thing we do know: Iran is extremely unlikely to tell the truth…or abide by any agreement, ceasefire, truce, or treaty. Which it proved by launching missiles at Israel and claiming it alone controls the Strait of Hormuz and may demand a toll fee to pass through it immediately after the ceasefire announcement. “Taqiyah” is a feature of Islam, a concept essentially declaring that any deception or lie that favors Islam is acceptable. Therefore, it is well nigh impossible to take any Muslim dictator or leaders at his or their word. Or should be.

And there is another thing we know: the Iranian people, who Trump himself called “great,” deserve better. This makes the end result even more problematic.

Instead of painting ourselves into a corner, we should have simply done one of two things: kept fighting until we finished the job, or declared our military objectives attained and ended Epic Fury and gone home. Iran knows it is likely to outlast Americans’ tolerance for this war, and that it only has to still exist in two weeks, a month, or a year to be able to rightly declare itself the winner. That is why an endeavor such as this is so daunting. And putting ground troops in a Muslim nation has proven problematic at best and is guaranteed to lead to significant American casualties.

So, where do we stand now? If Iran continues to act up, as seems likely, the President has to be willing to follow up this “ceasefire” with enough force, fortitude, and moxie to finish the job. I hope the powers that be have war-gamed this and have an ace or two up their sleeves. We—and the world—may well need it.

 

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